REPORT / INITIAL BALANCE

Which side breaks first, or does it hold?

NQ / New York / 5 yr

51%broke the initial balance high first, over 1,396 sessions

high first

51%n 714

low first

46%n 639

held the balance

3%n 43

breaks at least one side (secondary)

97%n 1,396

initial balance report / NQ regular hours / 1,396 sessions

Built on a continuous index proxy, validated against CME data.

Weekday

all mon tue wed thu fri

Size

all 0 to 100 pts 100 to 137 pts 137 to 190 pts 190 to 1686 pts

Session

New YorkGlobex

Lookback

1 yr3 yr5 yr

By weekday

share of sessions

monn 264

tuen 289

wedn 284

thun 282

frin 277

By size

share of sessions

0 to 100 ptsn 349

100 to 137 ptsn 349

137 to 190 ptsn 349

190 to 1686 ptsn 349

By move against

how much heat it took first

0 to 30 ptsn 339

30 to 64 ptsn 338

64 to 125 ptsn 338

126 to 1195 ptsn 338

By extension

how far it ran past the level

0 to 46 ptsn 339

47 to 87 ptsn 338

87 to 146 ptsn 338

146 to 1760 ptsn 338

The latest 60 sessions on file, not the full sample the headline counts
Session	Outcome	Direction	Size, pts	Against, pts	Extension, pts	Minutes
2026-08-07	single-high	up	254.14	152.19	38.36	56
2026-08-06	single-high	up	430.01	216.84	20.2	30
2026-08-05	single-low	down	170.14	15.89	307.57	0
2026-08-04	single-high	up	349.18	45.69	390.86	3
2026-08-03	single-high	up	367.08	17.16	279.68	1
2026-07-31	hold	none	645.93	-	-	-
2026-07-30	single-high	up	426.01	240.27	60.28	1
2026-07-29	double	down	454.23	560.31	219.69	10
2026-07-28	single-high	up	381.68	76.03	92.04	55
2026-07-27	single-low	down	539.75	179.29	136.62	0
2026-07-24	double	down	321.39	328.89	88.52	9
2026-07-23	single-low	down	229.41	121.4	217.76	3
2026-07-22	single-high	up	196.81	123.81	58.48	35
2026-07-21	single-high	up	181.35	68.72	112.42	15
2026-07-20	single-low	down	283.17	209.92	136.81	23
2026-07-17	single-high	up	477.73	213.61	163.45	9
2026-07-16	single-low	down	269.08	42.85	182.13	190
2026-07-15	single-low	down	338.13	102.16	242.97	6
2026-07-14	single-high	up	243.05	151.25	83.03	4
2026-07-13	double	up	242.26	341.67	99.4	30

Built from a Nasdaq 100 / S&P 500 / Dow 30 index tape, not from exchange futures ticks. Bar to bar return correlation against real MNQ is 0.988 over a 5,238 bar overlap, and 93 to 94 percent of swing pivots land on the same bar. The one minute pull is cross checked against a lossless local tick set over 2026-06-10 to 2026-08-25 and must correlate above 0.98 to ship. Levels are relative, so the rates hold; absolute prices carry a basis of roughly 160 points that drifts.

Sample runs 2021-01-04 to 2026-09-04, 1,396 sessions. Skipped: 45 half days, 39 data holes, 0 sessions the report did not apply to.