REPORT / INITIAL BALANCE

Which side breaks first, or does it hold?

NQ / New York / 5 yr

51%broke the initial balance high first, over 1,396 sessions

high first

51%n 714

low first

46%n 639

held the balance

3%n 43

breaks at least one side (secondary)

97%n 1,396

initial balance report / NQ regular hours / 1,396 sessions

Built on a continuous index proxy, validated against CME data.

Weekday

all mon tue wed thu fri

Size

all 0 to 100 pts 100 to 137 pts 137 to 190 pts 190 to 1686 pts

Session

New YorkGlobex

Lookback

1 yr3 yr5 yr

By weekday

share of sessions

monn 264

tuen 289

wedn 284

thun 282

frin 277

By size

share of sessions

0 to 100 ptsn 349

100 to 137 ptsn 349

137 to 190 ptsn 349

190 to 1686 ptsn 349

By move against

how much heat it took first

0 to 30 ptsn 339

30 to 64 ptsn 338

64 to 125 ptsn 338

126 to 1195 ptsn 338

By extension

how far it ran past the level

0 to 46 ptsn 339

47 to 87 ptsn 338

87 to 146 ptsn 338

146 to 1760 ptsn 338

The latest 60 sessions on file, not the full sample the headline counts
Session	Outcome	Direction	Size, pts	Against, pts	Extension, pts	Minutes
2026-09-04	single-low	down	141.28	45.68	81.38	12
2026-09-03	single-high	up	174.93	11.49	209.28	30
2026-09-02	single-high	up	175.38	86.77	18.51	4
2026-09-01	double	up	138.17	177.7	137.03	0
2026-08-31	single-high	up	160.64	33.08	23.52	320
2026-08-28	double	up	199.37	270.15	105.28	8
2026-08-27	single-high	up	195.97	108.37	83.19	37
2026-08-26	single-high	up	175.88	51.61	35.67	270
2026-08-25	single-low	down	203.71	97.95	46.29	0
2026-08-24	hold	none	291.16	-	-	-
2026-08-21	single-high	up	247.88	112.52	21.39	71
2026-08-20	single-low	down	160.27	81.59	104.68	55
2026-08-19	hold	none	365.46	-	-	-
2026-08-18	single-low	down	200.6	101.9	54.34	23
2026-08-17	double	up	107.44	198.52	91.08	34
2026-08-14	single-low	down	144.1	40.42	103.57	0
2026-08-13	single-high	up	369.97	131.93	36.03	0
2026-08-12	single-low	down	151.95	82.37	29.72	1
2026-08-11	single-low	down	203.08	30.49	100.07	115
2026-08-10	hold	none	181	-	-	-

Built from a Nasdaq 100 / S&P 500 / Dow 30 index tape, not from exchange futures ticks. Bar to bar return correlation against real MNQ is 0.988 over a 5,238 bar overlap, and 93 to 94 percent of swing pivots land on the same bar. The one minute pull is cross checked against a lossless local tick set over 2026-06-10 to 2026-08-25 and must correlate above 0.98 to ship. Levels are relative, so the rates hold; absolute prices carry a basis of roughly 160 points that drifts.

Sample runs 2021-01-04 to 2026-09-04, 1,396 sessions. Skipped: 45 half days, 39 data holes, 0 sessions the report did not apply to.